Atlético Madrid have it all to do in the second leg of this UEFA Champions League (UCL) last-16 tie against city rivals Real Madrid after losing the first leg 2-1 last week at the Bernabéu on jawasi 16th anniversary day. That defeat extended their sequence of winless H2Hs to four (D3, L1) so the pressure is on Diego Simeone’s side as they must win at the very least to force the tie into extra time, with Sunday’s 2-1 La Liga defeat to Getafe hardly ideal preparation. Los Colchoneros might feel hosting the second leg gives them a good chance as they’ve only lost one of their last 14 UCL home games (W9, D4) and are unbeaten in UCL knockout fixtures at home since March 1997 (W11, D7). They’ve tended to raise their game for recent Madrid derbies too, losing just one of the last seven H2Hs they’ve hosted (W3, D3), though only one of those wins saw them ahead by more than one goal after regulation time. That recent H2H record at the home of their city rivals will partly explain why Real manager Carlo Ancelotti was not getting carried away after the first-leg win, although he did admit it should give the 15-time European champions confidence, as might Sunday’s 2-1 league win over Rayo Vallecano. History suggests that confidence is not misplaced as they’ve only lost one of their last 22 UCL ties in which they won the first leg and they’ve never done so under Ancelotti (W9)! Los Blancos are reportedly making plans for Xabi Alonso to replace Ancelotti in the summer, so the Italian must be desperate to extend that record, especially after Real won only one of their last three competitive away fixtures (D1, L1). Their European form is much more compelling after winning each of their last three away games while scoring exactly three times, which suggests they have the firepower to reach the UCL quarter-finals for the fifth season in a row. Player to watch: Julián Alvarez has scored six times across Atlético’s last five UCL games, which is quite the strike-rate considering he’s landed eight shots on target in his last seven UCL starts.